Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea
Identifieur interne : 000937 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000936; suivant : 000938Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea
Auteurs : Zhi-Qiang Xia [République populaire de Chine] ; Juan Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Ya-Kui Xue [République populaire de Chine] ; Gui-Quan Sun [République populaire de Chine] ; Zhen Jin [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2015.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Republic of Korea.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections.
- Female, Humans, Male, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, Models, Biological.
Abstract
The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public’s attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144778
PubMed: 26690750
PubMed Central: 4686901
Affiliations:
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Republic of Korea</title><author><name sortKey="Xia, Zhi Qiang" sort="Xia, Zhi Qiang" uniqKey="Xia Z" first="Zhi-Qiang" last="Xia">Zhi-Qiang Xia</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanxi 030051</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanxi 030006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Juan" sort="Zhang, Juan" uniqKey="Zhang J" first="Juan" last="Zhang">Juan Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanxi 030006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xue, Ya Kui" sort="Xue, Ya Kui" uniqKey="Xue Y" first="Ya-Kui" last="Xue">Ya-Kui Xue</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanxi 030051</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, Gui Quan" sort="Sun, Gui Quan" uniqKey="Sun G" first="Gui-Quan" last="Sun">Gui-Quan Sun</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanxi 030006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jin, Zhen" sort="Jin, Zhen" uniqKey="Jin Z" first="Zhen" last="Jin">Zhen Jin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanxi 030006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2015">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Republic of Korea (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Mâle</term><term>République de Corée (épidémiologie)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Republic of Korea</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>République de Corée</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Models, Biological</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Mâle</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public’s attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> reaches up to 4.422. The numerical analysis shows that the reasons of the outbreak spread quickly are lack of self-protection sense and targeted control measures. Through partial correction analysis, the parameters <italic>β</italic><sub>1</sub> and <italic>γ</italic> have strong correlations with <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, i.e., the infectivity and proportion of the asymptomatic infected cases have much influence on the spread of disease. By sensitivity analysis, strengthening self-protection ability of susceptible and quickly isolating or monitoring close contacts are effective measures to control the disease.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Xia, S" uniqKey="Xia S">S Xia</name></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Q" uniqKey="Liu Q">Q Liu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Q" uniqKey="Wang Q">Q Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, Zw" uniqKey="Sun Z">ZW Sun</name></author><author><name sortKey="Su, S" uniqKey="Su S">S Su</name></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Ly" uniqKey="Du L">LY Du</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Drosten, C" uniqKey="Drosten C">C Drosten</name></author><author><name sortKey="Seilmaier, M" uniqKey="Seilmaier M">M Seilmaier</name></author><author><name sortKey="Corman, Vm" uniqKey="Corman V">VM Corman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hartmann, W" 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sortKey="Sun, Gui Quan" sort="Sun, Gui Quan" uniqKey="Sun G" first="Gui-Quan" last="Sun">Gui-Quan Sun</name><name sortKey="Xia, Zhi Qiang" sort="Xia, Zhi Qiang" uniqKey="Xia Z" first="Zhi-Qiang" last="Xia">Zhi-Qiang Xia</name><name sortKey="Xue, Ya Kui" sort="Xue, Ya Kui" uniqKey="Xue Y" first="Ya-Kui" last="Xue">Ya-Kui Xue</name><name sortKey="Zhang, Juan" sort="Zhang, Juan" uniqKey="Zhang J" first="Juan" last="Zhang">Juan Zhang</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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